MARKET UPDATE
While current figures remain slightly below long-term averages, they exhibit a strong upward trajectory compared to the prior year and recent months. Both transaction completions and mortgage approvals reflect a recovering market poised to return to pre-pandemic activity levels.
This data paints a nuanced picture of the property market and its ongoing recovery:
1. Completed Transactions in January 2025:
Monthly Comparison: There was a slight decline of 1.27% in completed transactions compared to December 2024. This suggests some seasonality or temporary slowing of activity at the start of the year.
Yearly Comparison: January 2025 completions were 14.77% higher than January 2024, indicating a significant year-on-year improvement in market activity.
Against the 12-Month Average: The completions were 3.97% above the 12-month average of 91,478, showing consistent improvement over recent trends.
10-Year January Average: Completions fell 5.03% below the 10-year average, but the positive momentum suggests a gradual return to historic norms.
2. Market Momentum:
The data reveals increasing sales agreements, signalling growing confidence and activity in the property market as conditions improve.
3. Mortgage Approvals:
Monthly Comparison: Approvals dipped slightly by 0.45% from December 2024, aligning with the decrease in transactions.
Yearly Comparison: Approvals were 19.93% higher than in January 2024, showcasing a strong recovery.
Against the 12-Month Average: Approvals were 4.24% above the 12-month average, reflecting a steady upward trend.
10-Year Average: Approvals were 4.06% below the 10-year benchmark, but the gap is narrowing, indicating progress toward more stable, long-term activity.
4. Forecast for 2025:
The market is forecasted to see a 5% increase in transaction numbers, growing from 1.1 million in 2024 to 1.15 million in 2025. This projection suggests confidence in continued recovery and alignment with historical transaction volumes.
Key Takeaways:
- While current figures remain slightly below long-term averages, they exhibit a strong upward trajectory compared to the prior year and recent months.
- Both transaction completions and mortgage approvals reflect a recovering market poised to return to pre-pandemic activity levels.
- The gradual improvement in market conditions is underpinned by rising buyer confidence and stabilised market dynamics.
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